Why the Race to Replace Gavin Newsom Is Total Chaos

California goes to the polls tomorrow, and honestly, nobody has a clue who our next governor will be.

Gavin Newsom is term-limited. The field to replace him is a packed, chaotic mess of 61 candidates. Because of California's quirky top-two primary system, every single candidate appears on the exact same ballot. Party lines don't matter on June 2. Only the two people who pull the most votes will survive to see the November ballot.

That means we could end up with a traditional Democrat-versus-Republican matchup. Or, we could get an all-Democratic civil war between the party establishment and a billionaire progressive populist.

If you are trying to cut through the noise before casting your vote, here is exactly what is happening, who actually matters, and how this primary will shake out.

The Frontrunners in the Jungle Primary

The latest polling from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) shows five candidates hitting double digits, but three have broken away from the pack.

Xavier Becerra

Becerra is the establishment heavy hitter. He has spent 35 years in state and national politics. He served as the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, California Attorney General, and spent decades in Congress representing Los Angeles.

His strategy relies on being the stable, experienced hand who knows how to navigate government and, crucially, fight federal policies in court. After Representative Eric Swalwell abruptly suspended his campaign in April following misconduct allegations, Becerra quickly consolidated support from major labor unions, Planned Parenthood, and Equality California. He leads the polls at 23%.

Steve Hilton

Hilton is the Republican frontrunner, sitting at 20% in the polls. He is a former Fox News host and was a top adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron before moving to Silicon Valley.

Donald Trump endorsed him, which basically guarantees him a massive chunk of the Republican base in a crowded field. He is pitching himself as a direct check on the Democratic supermajority in Sacramento. His main economic hook is a pledge to make the first $100,000 of personal income completely tax-free for Californians.

Tom Steyer

Steyer is a billionaire climate activist and former hedge fund manager who is currently buying up every piece of advertising space in the state. He has poured massive amounts of his personal wealth into this race, dwarfing the spending of every other candidate.

Steyer is running a progressive populist campaign, attacking corporate greed and special interests. It sounds weird coming from a billionaire financier, but it is working. He has even secured endorsements from Bernie Sanders-aligned groups like Our Revolution. He is currently third at 15%.

The Longshots With Traction

Two other names are lingering in the double-digit zone. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco is pulling 13% by running a hard-right campaign focused on culture wars, overturning sanctuary laws, and cutting environmental regulations. On the other side, former Orange County Congresswoman Katie Porter is holding at 12%, using her trademark whiteboard brand of consumer advocacy to appeal to middle-class families.

How the Top-Two System Changes Everything

California does not use a traditional primary system. You do not just vote for your party's nominee. Democrats, Republicans, independents, and third-party candidates are all lumped together.

This structure frequently creates unexpected outcomes. If the Republican vote splits evenly between Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, both could miss the cut, leading to a November showdown between Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer. That would force the state into a massive intra-party debate over the future of the progressive movement versus the political establishment.

Conversely, if the Democratic vote fractures across Becerra, Steyer, and Porter, Hilton could walk away with the top spot tomorrow night, turning the general election into a classic partisan fight.

The Core Issues Driving Voters

Voters are not just looking at personalities. The state is facing severe policy challenges that the next governor will inherit on day one.

• The Budget Gap: California is staring down a massive gap between state spending and revenue for the 2026–2027 fiscal year. The candidates are deeply split on how to fix it. Moderates want targeted spending cuts, while progressiers like Tony Thurmond are floating a tax on billionaires to preserve state services.
• Taxes and Affordability: Hilton's plan to eliminate income tax on the first $100,000 targets the state's crushing cost of living. Porter wants to shift the burden by cutting middle-class income taxes and raising rates on corporations.
• Climate and Energy: Steyer wants aggressive, fast-paced green initiatives. On the flip side, conservative candidates and moderate Democrats like former L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa are calling for a pause on new environmental rules, arguing that traditional oil and gas are needed as transition fuels to keep energy costs from spiking further.

Your Immediate Next Steps

If you haven't voted yet, the clock is ticking.

First, locate your nearest polling place or ballot drop box. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by June 2 or dropped off at a secure location by 8:00 PM.

Second, skip the vague campaign pamphlets. Check the nonpartisan voter guides on CalMatters or the PPIC data to see where the top five candidates stand on your specific priority issues.

The polls close at 8:00 PM Pacific Time. Given how tight the race is between Becerra, Hilton, and Steyer, do not expect a definitive answer on who made the top two on Tuesday night. It will likely take days of counting mail-in ballots to know who is officially moving on to November.