Why Trump Advisers Think Oil Prices Are About to Crash

You’re staring at the gas pump, watching the numbers climb like a SpaceX rocket, and wondering if you’ll have to choose between a full tank and a bag of groceries. It’s brutal. But if you listen to the folks in the White House inner circle right now, they’re basically telling you to hold on. They’re betting that the current $90-plus per barrel price tag is a temporary fever that’s about to break.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and economic voices like Stephen Moore aren't just hoping for a dip. They’re calling for a total collapse in prices. We’re talking about a move from triple digits back down to the $50 or $60 range. To some, it sounds like wishful thinking. To others, it’s a math problem that’s finally nearing its solution.

The Persian Gulf Logjam

The biggest reason for the optimism is literally floating in the water. Right now, there’s a massive backlog of nearly 2,000 ships idling near the Persian Gulf. They’re stuck behind a wall of geopolitical tension, waiting for the green light to move through the Strait of Hormuz.

Think of it like a kink in a garden hose. The pressure is building up behind the obstruction, and the market is pricing in the scarcity. But Bessent’s logic is simple: the second that kink gets straightened out, all that oil hits the market at once. It’s a supply "waterfall" waiting to happen. If those 2,000 vessels start moving, the global market goes from "starving" to "stuffed" in a matter of weeks.

The UAE Gamble and the OPEC Fracture

It isn’t just about the ships. There’s a massive shift happening within the power structures of global oil. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been signaling an exit from OPEC, the group that’s traditionally kept prices high by limiting how much oil gets pumped.

If the UAE officially walks, the floodgates open. The Trump team believes that a world where major producers compete to sell more oil—rather than agreeing to sell less—is a world where $40 or $50 oil becomes the norm again. They’re banking on the idea that the old cartel model is dying, and American "energy dominance" will be the final nail in the coffin.

Why the Skeptics Aren’t Buying It

Of course, not everyone is popping champagne. If you talk to analysts at J.P. Morgan or the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the tone is much darker. They’re looking at the same map and seeing a different story.

• Infrastructure Damage: You can’t just flip a switch on an oil well that’s been idled by conflict. Restarting production takes time, money, and parts that are currently hard to find.
• The Inflation Trap: Larry Kudlow and others have been predicting "negative inflation" for months, but the CPI keeps coming in hotter than expected.
• Geopolitical Wildcards: A ceasefire is a piece of paper. If it doesn't hold, or if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed through the end of 2026, the $115 per barrel nightmare becomes a reality.

The gap between the White House and Wall Street is massive. The Trump advisers see a "positive oil shock" on the horizon. The banks see a "prolonged supply crunch."

Reality Check for Your Wallet

So, what does this actually mean for you at the pump? If the Bessent/Moore "waterfall" theory is right, you could see gas prices drop by a dollar or more by the end of the year. We're talking about a return to sub-$3.00 gas in many parts of the country.

But there’s a lag. Even if crude prices crash today, it takes about three to four weeks for that to filter down to your local station. Refineries have to process the cheaper oil, and distributors have to sell through their expensive inventory first.

Don't go trading in your fuel-efficient car for a gas-guzzler just yet. The market is incredibly volatile, and one bad headline from the Middle East can wipe out a month of gains.

What You Should Do Now

1. Don't Top Off: If you can help it, avoid filling up when the market is spiking. Buy what you need and wait for the "waterfall" the advisers are promising.
2. Watch the Strait: The news regarding the Strait of Hormuz is your best indicator. If ships start moving, prices will start falling shortly after.
3. Lock in Heating Costs: If you use heating oil, look for opportunities to lock in rates if you see a significant dip this summer.

The White House is betting their economic reputation on this crash. If they're right, the relief will be historic. If they're wrong, we're in for a very long, very expensive winter.